From January 13 to February 11 next year, all eyes will be on Ivory Coast, where the final phase of AFCON 2023 will take place. While several favorites emerge to succeed Senegal, the supercomputer Opta has predicted the ultimate winner based on its statistics.
Postponed to this January 2024 due to meteorological concerns, AFCON 2023 will finally take place. Starting next Saturday, the host country, Ivory Coast, will kick off against Guinea-Bissau, followed by matches like Nigeria – Equatorial Guinea, Egypt – Mozambique, and Ghana – Cape Verde on Sunday. As teams complete their preparations and some already arrive on Ivorian soil, the powerful supercomputer Opta, which compiles data from players and teams, reveals the top favorite to win the 34th edition of the Africa Cup of Nations.
Senegal, poised to make history according to Opta
While we wonder whether AFCON 2023 will bring Mohamed Salah his first international title with Egypt or if his former Liverpool teammate, Sadio Mané, will successfully defend the title won in Cameroon in 2022, Opta has made its decision. Ahead of Ivory Coast, which hosts the edition and has made a good impression in recent weeks, the powerful Opta computer gives the Lions of Teranga a 12.8% chance of defending the CAF trophy. The Elephants are just behind with a 12.1% chance of becoming the first home winners since Egypt in 2006.
While no team has managed to defend its trophy since 2010, as Egypt did by winning a third consecutive title (2006, 2008, 2010), Opta believes that Aliou Cissé’s team has the ability to make history. To achieve this, Senegal must navigate Group C, which also includes Gambia, Cameroon, and Guinea, relying on Stuttgart’s in-form striker, Serhou Guirassy. For the group stage of AFCON 2023, Sadio Mané and his teammates have an 88.8% chance of reaching the Round of 16, a 47.4% probability of topping their group.
Ivory Coast, the second favorite
To reach the quarter-finals of AFCON 2023, Opta gives Senegal a 57.2% chance, 36% for the semi-finals, 21.7% for the final, and thus 12.8% to lift the trophy for the second consecutive time. Behind Senegal, Ivory Coast receives more credit from the supercomputer to lift AFCON 2023. While the president of the Ivorian Football Federation (FIF), Idriss Diallo, and Yaya Touré do not see the Elephants as favorites in the competition, Opta says otherwise.
A football powerhouse in Africa, Ivory Coast, with a significant number of matches played in AFCON, has not advanced beyond the quarter-finals since their last tournament victory in 2015, positioning them behind Senegal with a 12.1% chance in the supercomputer’s tournament simulations to win AFCON 2023. At home, Jean-Louis Gasset’s team should first overcome Guinea-Bissau and Equatorial Guinea in Group A, and then compete for the top spot against Nigeria.
The hosts of the 34th edition of the biggest national competition on the continent since 1957 have a 38.5% chance of finishing first compared to the Super Eagles’ 40.1%. However, in the knockout stages, Opta clearly gives the advantage to the Ivorians, who have a 53.4% chance of reaching the quarter-finals, slightly above Nigeria’s 48.5%.
Overall, if Franck Kessié, Sébastien Haller, and others reach the final in Abidjan on February 11, the Ivorians should at least be prepared for a tense finish. The Elephants’ previous AFCON final victories both came via penalty shootouts after goalless draws against Ghana in 1992 and 2015.
Other contenders
In any case, if Opta predicts Senegal as the winner of AFCON 2023, followed by Ivory Coast, it also estimates that Morocco’s Lions of the Atlas are the third candidates for the final victory with (11.1%). After becoming the first African team to reach the FIFA World Cup semi-finals in 2022, Hakim Ziyech and Achraf Hakimi can make history and secure their second continental title after 1976.
Algeria is the fourth favorite of the powerful computer with a 9.7% chance of glory, while Egypt (8.5%), Nigeria (8.1%), Cameroon (7.4%), Tunisia (6.3%), and Ghana (5.3%) are the other teams whose hopes are rated above 5%. Join us on the evening of February 11th to see if Opta got it right.
What do you think of the supercomputer’s predictions?
Leave a Reply