On Tuesday, statistical analysis site Opta unveiled its favorites for the 2024 Africa Cup of Nations, which kicks off this Saturday at 9pm.
According to the predictions of Opta’s supercomputer, Côte d’Ivoire have an 84.6% chance of progressing beyond the group phase and a 12.1% chance of winning their third title.
This calculation is based on simulating the competition 10,000 times, taking into account various statistics such as goals scored and conceded. Senegal, winners in 2021 and favourites for this edition, have a 12.8% chance of winning according to Opta, slightly ahead of the Ivorians.
The Lions of Teranga, with an 88.8% chance of reaching the Round of 16 and a 21.7% chance of reaching the Final, are in a tough group that includes Cameroon, Gambia and Guinea.
Morocco, the first African semi-finalists at a World Cup, are the third favourites with an 11.1% chance of winning, according to Opta. Led by players like Achraf Hakimi, Morocco are ahead of Algeria, champions in 2019 but underperformers in 2021, and looking to reclaim their supremacy after missing out on the 2022 World Cup.
Egypt, with an in-form Mohamed Salah, is also a serious contender, ranking in the top 5 with an 8.5% chance of winning the title. By contrast, Angola and Namibia, at the bottom of the table, have just a 0.5% chance of triumphing in the final in Abidjan.
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