According to the latest projections from Betfair regarding the 2026 Ballon d’Or, English striker Harry Kane currently tops the list of favorites. Estimates give him about a 19.6% chance of winning the award, boosted by a standout season with Bayern Munich.
The 32-year-old striker boasts impressive stats for the 2025-2026 season, with 61 goals and 7 assists in 51 matches. His performances have significantly contributed to Bayern Munich’s success, particularly in the Bundesliga, DFB-Pokal, and the Supercup, as well as a spot in the Champions League semifinals. He also clinched the European Golden Shoe, confirming his consistent effectiveness in front of goal.
Trailing him is French striker Ousmane Dembélé, who stands as the main competitor with about a 14.2% chance according to bookmakers. His influence at Paris Saint-Germain goes beyond individual stats, as he scored 20 goals and provided 11 assists in 40 matches. His ability to be decisive in high-stakes games is particularly highlighted, especially in victories against several top European clubs. The player, the reigning European champion with his club, remains a serious candidate if France wins the 2026 World Cup.
In third place is English midfielder Declan Rice, credited with about a 10.6% probability. His central role in Arsenal FC’s dynamics, especially in domestic and European competitions, strengthens his status among credible contenders.
Other players rounding out the list of favorites include Michael Olise, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Lamine Yamal, Vitinha, Kylian Mbappé, Désiré Doué, and Erling Haaland. Further down the hierarchy are Raphinha, Bruno Fernandes, and Julián Álvarez, along with a group of stars including Lionel Messi, Pedri, Vinícius Júnior, Bukayo Saka, Achraf Hakimi, and Federico Valverde.
The projections also take into account the potential impact of the 2026 World Cup, hosted in the United States, Mexico, and Canada. This tournament, featuring 48 teams, could significantly shift the balance of power, especially if nations like Spain, France, England, Brazil, Argentina, or Portugal have a strong showing. Performances on the international stage are expected to play a crucial role in the final race for the Ballon d’Or.
