The quarter-final lineup for the 2026 World Cup is now complete. After several major surprises, including the exits of Brazil, Portugal, and Germany, only eight nations remain in the hunt for the world trophy. With just three matches left until the final, Opta Analyst’s computer has updated its projections and now ranks the French team as the one with the best chance of winning the tournament.
The quarter-final matchups promise intense clashes. France will face Morocco, Spain will take on Belgium, Norway will challenge England, while Argentina will meet Switzerland. As after each round of the competition, Opta has analyzed performances, statistics, and probabilities to establish the qualification chances for each remaining team.
In the projections for the quarter-finals, the favorites show a clear advantage. France has the highest probability of reaching the semi-finals. According to Opta’s calculations, the Blues have a 73.88% chance of eliminating Morocco, compared to 26.12% for the Atlas Lions. Despite a solid run, the Moroccan team will need to pull off another upset to continue their journey.
The other quarter-final that seems to favor a favorite pits Spain against Belgium. La Roja is given a 69.70% chance of qualifying for the semi-finals, while the Red Devils have 30.30%. The Spanish team, backed by its collective strength and technical mastery, looks well-equipped to continue its campaign.
Meanwhile, Argentina is also among the most anticipated teams. The defending champions have a 69.13% chance of beating Switzerland, which still has a shot at a surprise with a 30.87% probability of qualification. The most balanced duel in the quarters should ultimately see England face Norway. The Three Lions are favored with 62.35%, but the Norwegians hold their ground with a 37.65% chance of making it to the last four.
As for the final victory, France still leads Opta’s forecasts. Didier Deschamps’ men are estimated to have a 27.32% chance of lifting the World Cup. Spain follows in second place with 21.33%, then Argentina (17.28%) and England (16.48%).
Behind this group of favorites, Norway has a 6.57% chance of becoming world champions. The odds are even lower for Switzerland (3.78%), Morocco (3.66%), and Belgium (3.58%). Despite reaching the quarter-finals, these three nations are still seen as outsiders by the statistical model.
Opta has also established the most likely finals for this 2026 edition. A matchup featuring France appears to be the most probable, as the Blues have a 44.34% chance of reaching the final. Argentina follows with 36.40%, ahead of Spain (36.35%) and England (35.04%).
The Blues are looking strong 🇫🇷🇫🇷🇫🇷
Following the conclusion of the last-16 of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, France have remained the favorites to win the tournament in the eyes of the Opta supercomputer. pic.twitter.com/qzdk4ldNFD
— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) July 8, 2026
However, the tournament bracket prevents certain potential finals. Since France and Spain are in the same part of the bracket, they cannot meet in the final. The same goes for Argentina and England. Therefore, the two matchups that stand out as the most likely for the grand final are France-Argentina and France-England.
