2026 World Cup: Opta and Football Meets Data give Senegal over 70% chance of qualification
Despite a rocky start to the World Cup, Senegal still holds strong hopes of reaching the knockout stage. Projections from specialized platforms Football Meets Data and Opta remain particularly favorable for the Lions of Teranga ahead of their final group match against Iraq. Both statistical models estimate that Pape Thiaw’s men have more than seven chances out of ten to continue their journey in the tournament.
After losing their first two matches to France (3-1) and Norway (3-2), Senegal can no longer afford to slip up. The Lions will face Iraq this Friday in Toronto, Canada, starting at 19:00 GMT, in a decisive match for their future. With zero points in the standings, a victory is crucial to hope for a spot among the eight best third-placed teams that will complete the knockout stage bracket.
Despite this tricky situation, prediction models continue to believe in Senegal. Football Meets Data, a company specializing in football statistical analysis, gives 72% chance of qualification to the future winner of the duel between Senegal and Iraq. This estimate reflects the belief that success in this clash would put the winner in an excellent position to secure one of the precious tickets reserved for the best third-placed teams.
The site of RMC Sport, which relays these simulations, emphasizes that the algorithms consider a draw an unlikely scenario. According to this analysis, one of the two teams should emerge victorious after 90 minutes. The winner would then reach three points, a total that could be enough to qualify among the best third-placed teams, depending on results in other groups.
Opta’s projections align with this. The renowned sports statistics company estimates Senegal’s qualification chances at 69.54%. Its supercomputer also predicts a victory for Sadio Mané’s teammates against Iraq. Such a result would bring the Lions significantly closer to a spot in the knockout phase, although their fate will also depend on the performances of other teams in this battle.
According to Opta’s predictive tool, Senegal’s chances of reaching the Round of 16 are now 57%. 🇸🇳
Yesterday, before the matches of groups D, E, and F, they were still at 72%
[@OptaJean] pic.twitter.com/Ci48FG6PUB
— Joueurs SN 🇸🇳 (@JoueursSN) June 26, 2026
The third day of the group stage promises significant suspense. Several teams are still in the running for the last qualifying spots, making every match crucial. Senegal must not only accomplish their mission by winning against Iraq but also closely monitor the results of other groups to understand their standing among the best third-placed teams.
Before this final day, five nations have already exited the competition. Haiti, Jordan, Panama, Tunisia, and Turkey are officially eliminated and can no longer qualify. In contrast, Senegal still holds part of its destiny in its hands: a victory against Iraq would offer a real opportunity to extend their World Cup journey, as confirmed by the simulations conducted by Football Meets Data and Opta. The Lions now know that success is essential, but it could be richly rewarded based on the probabilities set by data specialists.
