A clear favorite has emerged, while several contenders see their hopes fade: the race for the Ballon d’Or 2026 took a major turn following the World Cup semi-finals. The results of the matches between Spain and France (2-0), and Argentina and England (2-1) have significantly altered the hierarchy of favorites. Just days ago, several stars seemed capable of claiming the ultimate prize, but the elimination of their national teams has drastically reduced their chances of convincing the voters of France Football.
The World Cup traditionally plays a decisive role in the awarding of the Ballon d’Or, especially when it occurs just weeks before the evaluation period ends. This 2026 edition is no exception. The performances during the tournament have reshuffled the deck, bringing some players to the forefront while others have seen their candidacy lose credibility despite having an excellent club season.
Among the biggest losers are Harry Kane, Ousmane Dembélé, and Kylian Mbappé. All three were seen as serious candidates before the semi-finals. However, the eliminations of England and France have slowed their momentum. Even though their individual performances remain strong, the absence of a World Cup final could weigh heavily during the voting. Their club performances are no longer enough to keep them as top favorites.
According to the latest estimates published by the betting platform Polymarket, Harry Kane still holds a spot on the podium of favorites with a 19% chance of winning the Ballon d’Or 2026. Behind him, Ousmane Dembélé has dropped to just 3%, while Kylian Mbappé falls to a mere 2%. This significant drop perfectly illustrates the impact of World Cup results on this prestigious individual award.
The big beneficiary of this new hierarchy is undoubtedly Lionel Messi. At 39 years old, the Argentine continues to impress the football world. After an exceptional World Cup, he has already scored eight goals and provided four assists since the tournament began. As a true leader of the Albiceleste, he has guided his team to the final with top-level performances. These displays now position him as the number one favorite with a 41% chance of securing a ninth Ballon d’Or, an achievement that would further cement his legendary status.
But Lionel Messi still needs to watch out for Lamine Yamal. The young Spanish prodigy remains his main competitor with a 31% chance according to Polymarket. While his World Cup journey is less spectacular statistically with just one goal, his outstanding season with FC Barcelona continues to weigh heavily in his favor. With 24 goals and 18 assists in 45 matches, he also won La Liga, the Copa del Rey, and the Spanish Supercup, performances that significantly bolster his candidacy.
🚨 𝗕𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗞𝗜𝗡𝗚: The official Ballon d'Or account has just released the official confirmation that a player can win the Ballon d'Or while playing for a non-European club.
There has been no restriction since 2007.
— @ballondor pic.twitter.com/svUn6XZfFy
— The Touchline | 𝐓 (@TouchlineX) July 16, 2026
Behind the two main favorites, several players still hold a slim hope. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Michael Olise, Pedri, and Lautaro Martinez are all credited with a 1% chance, while Erling Haaland rounds out the top 10 with less than 1%. At this stage of the season, only a spectacular performance in the World Cup final or the final votes could change this hierarchy, but Lionel Messi now seems to have taken a considerable lead in the race for the Ballon d’Or 2026.
Top 10 Favorites for the 2026 Ballon d’Or According to Polymarket
| Rank | Player | Chances of Winning the Ballon d’Or |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lionel Messi | 41 % |
| 2 | Lamine Yamal | 31 % |
| 3 | Harry Kane | 19 % |
| 4 | Ousmane Dembélé | 3 % |
| 5 | Kylian Mbappé | 2 % |
| 6 | Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 1 % |
| 7 | Michael Olise | 1 % |
| 8 | Pedri | 1 % |
| 9 | Lautaro Martinez | 1 % |
| 10 | Erling Haaland | < 1 % |
